Report: The Geopolitical Power Play in the Horn of Africa
Introduction
The Horn of Africa has emerged as a key battleground for international influence, with France and Turkey vying for strategic dominance. France, facing diminishing influence in former African colonies such as Chad, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Mali, has redirected its focus to Somalia, leveraging Ethiopia as a proxy. Meanwhile, Turkey’s missteps and perceived indifference to Somali sovereignty have compounded the situation, leaving Somalia caught in a web of competing interests.
This report examines Ethiopia’s questionable arguments for Red Sea access, France’s broader strategy, and Turkey’s diplomatic errors, analyzing the implications for Somalia’s sovereignty and regional stability.
France’s Strategy: Rebuilding Influence
1. Pivot to Ethiopia
France is actively fostering Ethiopia’s naval ambitions, ostensibly to provide sovereign access to the Red Sea. This move not only challenges Somalia’s sovereignty but also seeks to undermine Turkey’s growing influence in the region. France’s strategy relies on:
Military Assistance: Supporting Ethiopia to establish a naval presence despite the country’s landlocked status.
Exploiting Historic Ties: Leveraging Ethiopia’s historical connections to France and its Christian heritage to bolster an alliance. Despite Ethiopia’s majority Muslim population; Ethiopia does not give Muslims the right to be elected as prime minister for Ethiopia.
Regional Destabilization: Encouraging Ethiopia to assert claims over Somali territories under the guise of sovereign access.
France’s actions are driven by a desire to regain relevance in Africa after losing hegemony in other regions, targeting Turkey in a tit-for-tat retaliation for Turkey’s influence in Francophone Africa.
Ethiopia’s False Arguments for Red Sea Access
Ethiopia justifies its Red Sea ambitions through several flawed claims:
1. Population Size as a Basis for Access
Ethiopia’s argument that its large population entitles it to Red Sea access disregards international law and its alleged population number is proven to be false and mere propaganda. Sovereignty is not determined by population but by recognized borders and historical agreements. Ethiopia’s population size, while significant, does not justify infringing on Somalia’s territorial rights.
2. Security Concerns and the Houthis
Ethiopia claims it needs naval access to combat regional threats, such as the Houthi insurgency in Yemen. However, this argument is unconvincing for several reasons:
Superpowers like the USA and UK, with far superior naval capabilities, have struggled to address the Houthi challenge effectively. Ethiopia’s naval ambitions are unlikely to significantly alter the regional security landscape.
This justification masks Ethiopia’s real intent: expanding its territory, influence and potentially asserting control over Somali waters.
3. Disregard for International Law
Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access violates international principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Recognized borders and agreements define Somalia’s rights to its maritime domain, which cannot be overridden by Ethiopia’s aspirations.
Turkey’s Diplomatic Missteps
While France appears to be outmaneuvering Turkey in the Horn of Africa, Turkey’s own errors have exacerbated its challenges:
1. Pressure on Somalia
Turkey has faced criticism for pressuring Somalia to grant Ethiopia sovereign access to the Red Sea. This approach undermines Somalia’s sovereignty and alienates Somali stakeholders who view Turkey as indifferent to their national interests.
2. Historical Insensitivity
Somali analysts have drawn parallels between the Red Sea issue and Turkey’s sensitivities regarding territorial disputes with Greece. This comparison has raised questions about Turkey’s double standards and eroded trust in its partnership with Somalia.
3. Economic Greed
Turkey’s focus on its economic interests in the region, coupled with an apparent lack of understanding of Somali history and geopolitics, has weakened its position as a reliable ally.
Implications for Somalia
1. Threat to Sovereignty
Both France’s alliance with Ethiopia and Turkey’s pressure on Somalia threaten the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
2. Regional Destabilization
Ethiopia’s ambitions, supported by France, risk destabilizing the Horn of Africa. A naval presence for Ethiopia could exacerbate tensions with Somalia and other Red Sea states.
3. Reassessment of Partnerships
Somalia must critically evaluate its relationships with Turkey and France to ensure its interests are protected.
Recommendations
For Somalia
Assert Sovereignty: Strengthen diplomatic efforts to resist external pressures and safeguard territorial rights.
Diversify Partnerships: Engage with a wider range of international partners to reduce reliance on any single actor.
Strengthen Regional Alliances: Work with other Red Sea states to collectively oppose Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions.
For Turkey
Respect Somali Sovereignty: Refrain from pressuring Somalia on the Red Sea issue and rebuild trust through transparent diplomacy.
Acknowledge Regional Dynamics: Enhance understanding of Somali history and geopolitical sensitivities to align policies with Somali interests.
Comprehend that Ethiopia is currently occupying Somalia’s western territory known in Ethiopia as Somali Killil or Zone 5 or Ogaden.
For France
Avoid Destabilization: Focus on promoting stability in the Horn of Africa rather than pursuing retaliatory strategies.
Support Regional Development: Shift emphasis from military alliances to initiatives that benefit the region economically and politically.
Taken-all-together: The Horn of Africa’s geopolitical dynamics are increasingly shaped by the competing interests of global powers. France’s alliance with Ethiopia and Turkey’s diplomatic missteps pose significant challenges for Somalia’s sovereignty and stability. To navigate this complex landscape, Somalia must assert its rights, diversify its partnerships, and foster regional cooperation. Meanwhile, France and Turkey must recalibrate their strategies to align with the region’s legitimate interests, prioritizing stability over competition.
AAD Somalia Report
